World Energy Outlook 2024

This annual report from the International Energy Agency can help you better understand trends in global energy use. Based on three long-term scenarios outlined, it explores how different energy futures might impact energy security, affordability, and sustainability. In all scenarios, human-caused emissions peak before 2030 and then decline at rates of 1%, 4%, and 15% per year. These trajectories lead to corresponding average temperature increases of 2.4 °C, 1.7 °C, and 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

It is important to note that these scenarios are based on many normative assumptions, and that warming is happening faster than expected; we have already exceeded 1.5 °C for more than a year. Further, these projections do not account for increasing natural emissions resulting from earth system destabilisation. That said, this report does offer useful macro-level considerations related to how geopolitical tensions, energy deployment, and electricity demand might affect the energy transition. While the full report is 398 pages long, we recommend strategy and sustainability practitioners review the executive summary.