Rescuing 1.5ºC: New evidence on the highest possible ambition to deliver the Paris Agreement

The world will very likely reach 1.5°C of warming by the early 2030s, meaning the world is headed towards a period of overshoot of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. This new study from Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) explains how we can limit the overshoot of 1.5°C to the lowest possible level and return warming back well below 1.5°C by 2100 by looking at the highest possible ambition that can be undertaken by countries, starting in 2025. The Highest Possible Ambition scenario updates the 1.5°C-aligned pathways assessed in the most recent IPCC cycle (AR6), starting from today’s emission levels (2025) and energy market dynamics to achieve the safest possible temperature outcome within physical, technological and economic feasibility limits. Starting from where we find ourselves in 2025, the study provides an updated evidence base on how to achieve the Paris goal, featuring four key levers for transforming our energy and land-use systems: widespread electrification powered by renewables; a much faster phaseout of fossil fuels; carbon dioxide removal at commercial scale; and faster action on methane.