Emissions Gap Report 2026

The UNEP Emissions Gap Report provides a yearly review of emissions trends and explains where they should be to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. This report, the 17th edition, explores a ‘lowest possible’ 1.5°C overshoot scenario, in which peak warming near the middle of the century is limited to 1.7 - 1.8°C and global temperature rise is returned to or below a 50% likelihood of 1.5°C by 2100. It explains how getting on this pathway will require GHG emissions to be reduced by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040 (all relative to 2025 levels), and how - by contrast - the full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) will leave the world on track to only limit warming this century to 2.6°C. The report also builds on the first Global Stocktake and lays out new sectoral benchmarks consistent with the lowest 1.5°C overshoot scenario, detailing what is needed in the expansion of renewable energy; reducing primary energy intensity; reducing the share of coal, oil, and gas in total energy supply; and cutting methane emissions beyond 2030. This is a helpful resource for remaining abreast of the 'commitment' gap and for understanding how ambitious your climate change-related goals will need to be in order to do your part in slowing and reversing the global rise in GHG emissions.